By Carl WeinschenkFolks who are new or sporadic voters should avoid a mistake that many make: Don’t put too much faith in political media.
Generally, I am against saying “the media does this” or “the media does that.” It’s almost by default an over-simplification. The political media is an extraordinarily varied, diffuse and competitive universe. This is especially true with the advent of podcasts, social media and other online content during the past few decades.
But it’s fair to say that the political media craves drama. It makes things more interesting for them. Whether it’s the primaries or the general election, the job is much easier for these folks if a theme or narrative develops into which daily or weekly news fits. The campaign becomes a novel with a beginning, middle and conclusion (or “denouement,” as we learned in high school) instead of an endless series of repetitive and disconnected short stories.
A related characteristic of political narratives is that they are heavily invested in anointing winners and losers. This may be a particular candidate or a faction within the party. Covering campaigns is like covering baseball. The season feels endless.
The Democrats’ situation is more nuanced. In past years, the left side of the Democratic coalition has more or less used common sense and realized that it would get far more of what it wants by working within the system with moderates. This is in stark contrast to the Republicans, who during the 20 years have taken on the centrist Republicans twice–once by the Tea Party and once by MAGA.
Now, however, the left feels that it is ready for its closeup. On one level, it is purely a matter of age and generational turnover. The narrative of change also is built on the war in Gaza and the reality that the centrists Democrats failed to reign in Donald Trump when they controlled the levers of government during the Biden years.
For voters–especially first-time voters and sporadic voters – it is important to understand what the narrative is while not fully buying into it. For one thing, there likely is more than a grain of truth in what experts say and write. But it’s almost certainly exaggerated for ideological reasons and because there is so much competition for eyeballs and clicks. Keep in mind that at the end of the day change almost always happens around the edges.
Simplistic narratives almost always implode. Indeed, the narrowness of the primary win by Abdul El-Sayed for the Senate in Michigan and the defeat of Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong by a moderate in the primary for governor of Wisconsin threw a good deal of cold water on the idea that the left is taking over the Democratic Party. The new thinking is that the left will win in some places and the centrists in others. That’s reasonable–and boring.
At the end of the day, the best advice is to listen to political media — many members of the press are brilliant and have important things to say — but to do so with the understanding that they are just guessing like the rest of us. And in many cases, their guesses may miraculously coincide with their personal and political interests. For instance, a commentator predicting a huge wave of left-wing winners may stand to gain clicks and views if that happens. It’s conscious and unconscious wish fulfillment. And, finally, keep in mind that pundits are fueled by polls which often are unintentionally or purposefully skewed.
And, of course, educate yourself on the issues and candidates and vote. On election day all the noise will end. At least until the next cycle begins.