By Carl Weinschenk
It is a bit of an irony that one of the most important races in the midterm cycle is for the Senate in a state that is physically separate and has so little in common with the rest of the country. But that’s the reality as the Alaska primary grows closer.
The Democrats are solidly favored to win the House of Representatives. The Senate is on a razor’s edge. Alaska–where Mary Peltola is facing either one or two Dan Sillivans (I kid you not) – is a vital swing state. Many analysts now rate the race as a toss-up. There is an amusing complication in which a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. As of right now, both will be there. The lesser known Sullivan will not have a party affiliation and the current senator will have “incumbent” next to his name. One is a “Jr.” and they have different middle initials.
The geographic uniqueness of Alaska means that the issues driving the race will be different than what is important in the lower 48. The Alaska primary is on August 18.
Here is a rundown as the Alaska primary approaches. Note how many of these seem to have no relationship to things that are happening in the rest of the country:
The State Budget and the Permanent Fund Dividend
No issue defines Alaska politics like the size of the annual PFD check. Thus, it is certain to be a big deal next month in the Alaska primary. The state has no income or statewide sales tax.This means that more than half the general fund comes from a draw on the Permanent Fund. Oil revenue covers most of the rest. Lawmakers have spent this year fighting over the size of the dividend. Governor Mike Dunleavy has proposed about $3,800. The state House is near $1,500. The final compromise landed around $1,000 plus a modest energy rebate.
Democrats – as well as the legislature’s bipartisan majority coalitions – have settled on a smaller dividend paired with more spending on schools. They argue the state cannot sustainably fund a big check without deeper cuts or new revenue.
Oil and Gas Taxation
Oil is Alaska’s economic backbone. There’s a growing bipartisan appetite for taxing it differently. A proposal to make Hilcorp, a major private producer, pay the state corporate income tax as publicly traded companies is suported by a large majority of voters across party lines.
Republicans in the legislature and Dunleavy generally resist new taxes on the industry, warning they could chill investment and drilling, including at the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
Democrats and many independents back closing the Hilcorp loophole and revisiting oil tax credits. They view this as a fairer way to fund schools and services without touching the PFD.
K-12 Education Funding
The fight over the Base Student Allocation, Alaska’s per-student funding formula, is the legislature’s defining domestic battle. The 2026 operating budget includes a one-time boost of roughly $158 million for schools. Districts say it doesn’t keep pace with inflation.
Democrats and the bipartisan statehouse and senate coalitions are pushing for a permanent, larger increase to per-pupil funding. They cite teacher shortages and rising costs.
Republicans and Donleavy have vetoed larger increases in the past. They prefer smaller, targeted boosts and expanded charter and homeschool options. They are skeptical about what they characterize as an inefficient public school bureaucracy.
Federal Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP
The 2025 federal reconciliation law-imposed work requirements on Medicaid and food stamp recipients, changes projected by state health officials to put thousands of low-income Alaskans at risk of losing coverage or benefits.
Republicans, including Representative Nick Begich and, presumably other Republicans participating in the Alaska primary, support the law as a way to rein in federal spending and encourage work.
Democratic challengers have made the cuts a centerpiece of their campaigns. They argue that the law strips health coverage from rural and Native communities to fund tax breaks elsewhere.
Energy Costs and the Gasline
A looming natural gas shortage in southcentral Alaska has pushed energy affordability near the top of the agenda, with lawmakers debating tax breaks to jump-start a long-stalled trans-Alaska gas pipeline.
Republicans favor incentives to accelerate LNG development and Cook Inlet production.
Democrats are more divided. Some support the pipeline as a jobs and heating-cost solution. Others question the subsidies’ cost to taxpayers and the project’s shaky financial track record.
Subsistence Hunting and Fishing Rights
Federal law prioritizes rural subsistence access, while Alaska’s constitution bars preferential treatment. This is a long-running conflict candidates must address every cycle.
Republicans tend to defend state sovereignty over fish and game management and resist federal override.
Democrats and many rural and Alaska Native leaders favor stronger legal protections for subsistence priority, even if it requires amending the state constitution.
Ranked-Choice Voting and Open Primaries
Alaska barely kept its top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system in 2024. Another repeal measure is on the 2026 ballot.
Many Republicans, including national figures who’ve criticized the system after ranked-choice losses, favor returning to party primaries.
Democrats and a large bloc of independents generally support keeping the current system, crediting it with electing candidates such as Mary Peltola and moderating extreme outcomes.
Reproductive Health Coverage
A bill requiring insurance to cover a year’s supply of contraceptives at once passed the legislature with bipartisan votes. It was then vetoed by Dunleavy.
It’s a bit bipartisan: Democrats and many Republican voters support restoring the mandate. Socially conservative Republicans and the governor have opposed it on cost and religious grounds.
Public Employee Pensions
Alaska ended defined-benefit pensions for new state workers two decades ago. Lawmakers are debating a revival of the practice to address chronic shortages of teachers, troopers and nurses.
Democrats and public-employee unions favor restoration of the option.
Many Republicans prefer keeping the current defined-contribution system, citing long-term cost risk to the state.
Election Integrity and Immigration Enforcement
Flashpoints in this area include voter ID and citizenship-verification proposals, questions about ICE’s role and the Lieutenant Governor’s decision to share voter data with federal officials.
Republicans generally back stricter voter ID and cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
Democrats have raised privacy and access concerns and criticized expanded ICE authority.
More Races, More Faces for the Alaska Primary
The race for the Senate is not the only important race. In the House, Republican incumbent Nick Begich III will face Democratic pastor Matt Schultz and independent commercial fisherman Bill Hill have emerged as his leading challengers. Dunleavy is term-limited. The Republican field includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, former state Senate majority leader Shelley Hughes, former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson and former legislator Click Bishop. The Democratic side includes Tom Begich, Matt Claman and independent Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
All races in the Alaska primary and the general election will use ranked-choice voting in the general election.
Resources:
- Alaska Division of Elections,
- Alaska Beacon (nonprofit statehouse and elections coverage):
- Alaska Public Media:
- Ballotpedia — Alaska 2026 elections: https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_elections,_2026
- Cook Political Report — Alaska Senate race: https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488531
- Data for Progress — Alaska voter priorities: https://www.dataforprogress.org/
(This story was reseached and a preliminary draft written by Claude.ai. I edited and rewrote the story. Image: Public Domain)