By Carl Weinschenk
And, if they are, there are a lot of bums–I mean elected officials–to toss. The election will determine who will be in the governor’s seat in Columbus, a U.S. Senate seat, two seats on the Ohio Supreme Court and the entire state legislature.
Donald Trump won the state in all three of his presidential runs (by an average of about 9 percent). But that may be old news, at least according to February and April polls conducted by The Democracy and Public Policy Network at Bowling Green State University in Ohio and YouGov. The polls featured wide nets (1,000 registered voters in Ohio for the former and 1,200 for the latter) and took a deep dive into issues of importance to the citizens of the Buckeye State.
Each poll of course provides a lot of valuable data. What’s perhaps even more interesting assessing the trendlines between the two.
The Economy is the Top Issue to Registered Voters in Ohio
Not surprisingly, the economy dominates both polls. In February, 42 percent of Ohio voters identified the economy as one of their top three most important issues. That was a wide margin over every other concern. The April poll reinforced that finding. The researchers described the economy in April as “by far” the most important issue on voters’ minds.
In February, 55 percent of Ohio respondents said the economy had gotten worse over the past year; by April, that figure had inched up to 56 percent. Perhaps more importantly, the share saying it had gotten better dropped from 28 percent to just 22 percent. About 20 percent of Trump voters in the latter poll say they regret their vote to at least “some degree.” That’s a big number in a state the former president won by double digits.
The tariffs played a key role in driving economic anxiety to where it is now. Its collapse at the hands of the Supreme Court did not resolve the underlying anxiety. Ohio voters had already rendered a verdict: 49 percent believed the tariffs would hurt the country, and only 38 percent thought they would help. That skepticism flows into the broader question about the direction of the national economy and which party will do a better job for Ohio’s working and middle class. In short, the tariffs are gone but their shadow lingers.
The Democrats frame the economic challenge as fundamentally a cost-of-living crisis that requires more government investment, not less. In March, the Ohio House Democrats unveiled a legislative package called “An Ohio You Can Afford.” It targets healthcare, childcare, housing, energy and consumer goods costs.
Senate candidate Sherrod Brown — whose political identity has long been rooted in the economics of the manufacturing floor — argues that working Ohioans need stronger labor protections, continuing Medicaid coverage and targeted industrial investment in clean energy and infrastructure. This is far preferable to tax cuts that he argues disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dr. Amy Acton ties economic security directly to healthcare security, arguing that a family facing medical debt or unaffordable insurance cannot fully participate in Ohio’s economy regardless of what the tax rate is. Both candidates point to the April survey finding that 63 percent of Ohio voters do not believe the federal government’s checks and balances are maintaining accountability. They argue that economic insecurity and institutional mistrust feed upon each other.
A Close Second: Threats to Democracy and Institutional Trust
In the February poll, 32 percent of Ohio voters called threats to democracy as a top three concern. This is a remarkable share for an abstract issue. The April poll does not re-rank the issue hierarchy in the same explicit way, but it shows a measurable deterioration in institutional trust between the survey windows.
The percentage of Ohio voters who believe the federal government can “never” be trusted jumped from 22 percent in February to 26 percent in April. That increase was modest among Republicans (+2 points) and more pronounced among Democrats (+5 points).
Bowling State professor Melissa Miller flagged one figure in particular: Among independents, distrust rose by 8 points. “Independents tend to be the holy grail in U.S. elections,” Miller said. The accelerating alienation from federal institutions could be decisive in November.
That wasn’t the only finding in the April poll that pointed to deep cynicism. Researchers found that 63 percent of respondents do not believe checks and balances are maintaining accountability in the federal government and that 54 percent are dissatisfied with how American democracy is functioning.
The February poll found sharp anxiety about civil liberties: Almost 60 percent said freedom from unreasonable search and seizure was under threat. The same fear was evident for freedom of speech (57), freedom of the press (55 percent) and freedom of assembly (51 percent). Approximately six in ten respondents in February opposed ICE agents wearing masks, driving in unmarked vehicles or conducting immigration raids themselves. About 20 percent said they know someone who had protested ICE activity.
The Republicans passed Senate Bill 293, which eliminates the four-day grace period for absentee ballots received after Election Day. They argue that it brings Ohio in line with most other states and bolsters election night confidence. Senate President Rob McColley and Secretary of State Frank LaRose suggest cleaner and faster vote counts build public trust. More broadly, Republicans argue that checks and balances are adequately functioning through Congress and the courts and that “threats to democracy” are largely a Democratic messaging strategy.
The Democrats say SB 293 is an attempt to supress the vote and point to the rising distrust numbers as a natural response to executive overreach. Democrats emphasize the need to protect voting rights, Medicaid, civil liberties and an independent judiciary. The lone remaining statewide elected Democrat in the state is Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner. She is up for reelection fighting to retain her seat. The two Ohio Supreme Court races can be seen as a referendum on judicial independence.
Rounding Out the Top Three: Health Insurance in Ohio
Health insurance in Ohio is tied with immigration at 31 percent as the third most important issue in the February poll. The April findings continue to treat it as a defining issue, particularly in the context of federal Medicaid funding debates and the cost of prescription drugs.
Ohio has approximately 3.6 million Medicaid enrollees, including those covered by the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The Ohio Capital Journal reported in the middle of last year that the Medicaid expansion survived the first round of federal budget negotiations but faces ongoing cuts. President Trump’s visit to Ohio in March became a flashpoint as Democrats mocked what they called the “sham TrumpRx” drug pricing. They said that the initiative failed to meaningfully bring down drug costs.
The trend between February and April reflects growing healthcare anxiety at the state level. Ohio House Democrats unveiled their “An Ohio You Can Afford” package in late March as a direct response to rising out-of-pocket costs for Ohioans. A separate KFF poll from January found that 75 percent of voters nationally said healthcare costs would influence their midterm vote. Clearly, the issue may lead to voting changes in Ohio.
The Democratic approach is led by Dr. Acton. Acton, who served as Ohio’s Health Director during COVID-19, treats healthcare as a fundamental right. Acton and Senate candidate Brown both have strongly opposed Medicaid cuts. Brown co-sponsored legislation in January to restore ACA subsidies. Democrats argue that every cut to Medicaid is a cut to Ohio families who depend on it for mental health, disability and long-term care services.
The Republican position, as articulated by Ramaswamy, centers on reducing healthcare costs through market competition, deregulation and elimination of what he calls inefficiencies in the current system. Ramaswamy supports work requirements for Medicaid recipients. He drew fire from Democrats when he said on an October 2024 podcast that “with the benefit of retrospect” Medicaid was a mistake. Republicans argue that private-sector solutions and reduced government mandates will bring down premiums and increase consumer choice.
What Else are Registered Voters in Ohio Thinking About?
- Immigration (31%; Feb. poll): Tied with healthcare as a top-three concern in February. Democrats oppose ICE raids and call for humane enforcement. Republicans treat aggressive border enforcement and interior deportations as core elements of Trump’s mandate.
- Inflation (29%; Feb. poll): Distinct from the broader economic issue. Democrats tie inflation to tariff-driven price increases on food, fuel and consumer goods. Republicans argue inflation is trending downward and that deregulation will accelerate relief.
- Iran and Foreign Policy (emerging; April poll): Fifty-three percent oppose the war in Iran and 67 percent oppose the use of ground forces. Foreign policy has historically not ranked highly in Ohio midterm politics, but the Iran war created a new variable. This is especially true among suburban and independent voters.
- Education; K-12 and Higher Ed: Ohio’s controversial Senate Bill 1, which bans Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) on college campuses, restricts classroom discussion and prohibits faculty strikes, has reshaped higher education statewide. Democrats want it repealed. Republicans defend it as restoring academic neutrality and protecting free inquiry from ideological pressure.
- Reproductive Rights: Voters passed a constitutional amendment in November 2023 protecting abortion rights. Republicans are trying to narrow its implementation through statute. Democrats want full enforcement and are using the issue to drive female voter turnout in the midterms.
- Redistricting and Democratic Accountability: Ohio voters rejected redistricting reform in 2024. Map-making power remained with the Republican-controlled legislature. Democrats continue pushing for an independent commission. Republicans argue the current process is legal and reflects election results.
- Property Taxes: Rising property values have led to dramatically higher tax bills for many Ohio homeowners. Both parties acknowledge the issue. Opinions differ on whether the solution is state-level relief, homestead exemptions or broader tax restructuring.
The Highest-Profile Races
The marquee race is for the U.S. Senate. It pits Jon Husted (R) against Sherrod Brown (D). Senator Husted was elevated from lieutenant governor when J.D. Vance became Vice President. He is backed by Trump. Brown — who lost his 2024 Senate race to Bernie Moreno — is running again. He bets that the anti-Trump environment and his labor-focused brand will prevail. The April poll has Husted leading Brown 49–46, within the margin of error and virtually unchanged from earlier surveys. Decision Desk HQ rates this race as highly competitive.
The governor race between Ramaswamy (R) and Acton (D) also is vital. It is an open seat because Mike DeWine is term-limited. The race will be one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in Ohio history. The April poll shows Ramaswamy at 48 percent to Acton’s 47 percent. An EMC Research poll in March gave Acton a 53–43 advantage, while right-leaning Quantus Insights had the race at 46–45.
Ohio Supreme Court: Six of the seven justices on the court are Republican. Two seats are up for election this cycle, including one held by Justice Brunner. All seats are important, but the best Democratic registered voters in Ohio can hope for is to move the court to 5-2.
State Legislature: Democrats want to break Republican supermajorities in both the Ohio House and Senate. If one or both of the supermajorities are broken, Republicans won’t be able to override gubernatorial vetoes. This makes the legislative races pivotal.
Claude.ai and Creao,ai contributed to this story and infographic. US map image from Creative Commons. Sources: Bowling Green State University; WTOL 11 (CBS); The Hill; Ohio Capital Journal; Statehouse News Bureau; Ohio House Democrats; Signal Ohio; Decision Desk HQ; 270toWin; KFF and WCMH-TV (NBC). Other states that VTT has profiled are Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, California, Texas, North Carolina, New York and Georgia