By Carl Weinschenk
Every election cycle has its surprises. It befits the Trump era that many of the 2026 midterm election surprises are more dramatic and likely to have longer-term impact than other cycles.
Let’s check some a dozen interesting things we’ve learned.
Money is confusing
In a normal world, it would be easy to figure out the money. It isn’t. Republicans tend to favor large donations made through political action committees (PACs) and the Republican National Committee. Democratic supporters tend to send smaller donations directly to campaigns. This makes comparisons difficult. Another complication is that when and to whom a donation is made affects ad rates. A buck given directly to a campaign early in the cycle is worth more than a buck given to a PAC during the final weeks. It’s not exactly a 2026 midterm election surprise, but still true: It’s hard to quantify one side’s financial advantage over the other.
Money is not decisive
Both parties have huge donors and lots of money. The Republicans have more, but the Democrats have plenty. Measuring the impact of the money on the state of the race is impossible. But it is safe to say that the law of diminishing returns would kick in at some point and that money isn’t everything in life – or in politics.
Dems don’t fight each other
A group of Democratic socialists and those aligned with them did well in the primaries. This was a few months after Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoralty.
Many people speculated that there would be a schism between the left and centrist elements of the party. This has not happened. Democrats understand that half a loaf is better than nothing and a half full glass still has plenty of liquid in it. In general, the party sees the big picture and is willing to put pragmatics ahead of philosophy.
Candidates matter
One of the things that have slowed the GOP’s roll during the past few years is that they pick poor candidates. Part of that simply is the philosophy upon which MAGA is based is not shared by a majority of Americans. Moreover, President Trump tends to choose odd and compromised folks such as Ken Paxton and Vivek Ramaswamy. His vetting seems limited to asking Natalie Harp what she thinks.
The Democrats, on the other hand, have come up with compelling candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa in Texas.
Dems have learned to go for the kill
This item is related to the “candidates matter” item above. Ossoff shamed Mike Collins and El-Sayad took it to Mike Rogers. While he isn’t much of a public speaker, Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson held his own against incumbent Susan Collins in their debates. He landed some good lines and seemed to be the authentic working class guy Graham Platner wanted us to believe he was.
The Trump bloom is off the rose for MAGA
The Venn diagram of Donald Trump and MAGA has far less overlap than a few years ago. The movement hitched itself to Trump as he ascended. That odd marriage is on the rocks. They are recognizing some difficult truths. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill and hatred of ACA are closing rural hospitals and making health care more expensive and harder to find. His tariffs have exploded fuel costs and closed foreign markets. There are other ways in which he has hurt his core supporters. He still wins this group, but by smaller margins.
Mail voting was a weird issue
At the end of the day, Trump’s obsession with degrading or ending mail voting failed. It was strange: Many Republicans are rural and/or elderly vote by mail. Indeed, Trump himself votes by mail. It’s no slam dunk that ending mail voting wouldn’t help Democrats. Trump’s efforts to end mail voting is another example of his disdain for his core voters and the disconnect between what he does and what is good for him politically.
Real realignments are very rare
The 2024 election swung to Trump because African-Americans, young people and, in particular, Latinos voted for him in larger numbers than traditional Republican candidates. Those smart enough to have high salaries saw this as a sign of a shift from identity politics to class politics. The thought was that the working class went for Trump because he was perceived to be good for business. Color, race and age didn’t matter because a good economy benefits everyone.
Well, it seems that color, race and age are making a comeback. Polls confirm the extraordinary idea that people won’t vote for somebody who is sending out goons to arrest, shackle and deport them, argue in court that clearly racist positions are not racist or siccing debt collectors on kids struggling with their college loans. Shocking.
It pays to have good lawyers
Trump and his acolytes have made no secret of their intention of doing anything necessary to win. If it can be done legally, fine. If not, well, we have too much skin in the game to let the niceties of the U.S. Code get in the way.
Smart Democrats with JDs have taken them at their word. Many in the legal community – folks of all parties who feel deeply about the rule of law – take this all seriously. At the same time, the lawyers on the MAGA side tend not to be the best and brightest. The Supreme Court grades Republicans and their lawyers on the curve. But the rest of the judiciary doesn’t, and Republicans are losing far more than they are winning.
Republicans have trouble when they leave their bubble
Many folks claim that Trumpism is a cult. I feel that this is true of his most ardent supporters but not of the movement at large. What is true, however, is that the Republicans are so deeply enmeshed in their echo chamber that they have trouble communicating with the outside world.
We’ve recently witnessed the awesome self-immolation of Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) during the Senate testimony of special prosecutor Jack Smith; the hiring and firing of Katie Zackeria as White House Press Secretary within a few days and the embarrassment of saying Talarico was in a mental institution when he was home with the flu.
People responded
We live in a cynical age. A silver lining of the two Trump presidencies is that they have given us the chance to see the other side of the coin. People have organized, spoken out, marched, donated and pushed back. The center and left – and the right in many instances – worked hard to expose Trump and his acolytes for what they are.
We saw the enemy up close
For decades, there has been an understanding that the rich operate under a different set of rules than the rest of us. The excesses of the administration, along with the Epstein revelations, is shining a 5,000 watt light on this world. In many ways, it was the most valuable thing that we learned during this difficult time.
Yes, there have been no shortage of 2026 election surprises. The good news is that it all will be over in two weeks. Please send it out in style by voting.