The resistance to Donald Trump and his administration is winning. Here’s why:
The people aren’t going away. The ongoing battle in Minneapolis, the Epstein Files and other events have transformed and galvanized the resistance.
In the fall and early winter, the marches and demonstrations were organized on the fly. They were massive and driven by adrenaline. The resistance in Minnesota added organization and structure. The movement is built for the long haul. The processes and procedures it created can be replicated anywhere.
The administration’s hubris isn’t going away: DHS and ICE have lost what credibility they had by their provocations and illegal activities. More people realize how dangerous they are to our nation. Ratcheting up violence will make the resistance still bigger and broader. The video of the crowd at a professional wrestling match spontaneously breaking into a “F**k ICE” chant likely sent shockwaves through the administration.
The polls aren’t going away. Trump is tanking. For instance, last month’s CNN poll gave him a net approval rating of 39%. Forty-six percent of respondents “strongly” disapproval, while only 19% strongly approve. The New York Time/Sienna poll, also from last month show him “underwater”–less approval than disapproval–on ten of 11 issues. Independent voters are shifting away from the administration. Most polls have Trump’s approval rating in the high thirties. Between 60 and 70 percent disagree with the administration on each issue polled.
Losing Latinos is a Big Deal
The administration is also polling terribly among Latino voters. I am not a political professional, but I’d guess that randomly throwing hard-working members of a group into horrific detention centers and deporting many without due process to countries in which they have never lived is not an optimal electoral strategy.
The dummymanders aren’t going away: The administration sought to gain an advantage by redistricting in a way that squeezed high numbers of Democrats into fewer districts. The goal is to create more Republican districts. The risk is that the party doing the finagling narrows the margins in its “safe” districts.
The Republicans’ problem is that they assumed they would garner the level of Latino any youth support it had in 2024. That’s not happening. The GOP was aggressive and cut things close in terms of how they changed the boundaries. This puts some of those previously safe seats in jeopardy. Such miscalculations are known as “dummymanders.”
Jeffrey Epstein isn’t going away. Actually, he has and is highly unlikely to return. But his scandal is here to stay. The media likes nothing better than horrific sex stories with clearly defined victims and rich, easy-to-hate and one-dimensional villains. The Epstein Files are a made-for-TV tragedy.
And let’s cut to the chase: The chances that Trump did not do disgusting things is vanishingly low. We know what he does when people are watching. Imagine what he’s capable of when he thinks we aren’t.
The stench of the Epstein Files will continue to fuel the resistance to Donald Trump. Indeed, it will cling to him for the rest of his life. It will be mentioned in the first paragraph of his obituary.
The Resistance to Donald Trump Relies is Broad and Deep
Trump’s insanity isn’t going away: Trump is the gift that keeps on giving–to his enemies. It’s hard to think of anything more arrogant and maddening than determining whether or not public works get funded on whether they carry his name or berating a female reporter because she doesn’t smile. Nothing says somebody is a racist more clearly than doing racist things. He seems incapable of not offending.
Our economic problems aren’t going away: Trump ran on inflation and affordability. Those problems remain the most important in voters’ minds. They are not improving. The blame Biden deflection is wearing thin.
Schumer and Jeffries aren’t going away: It’s my view–perhaps not a widely shared one –that Hakeem Jeffries in the House and Chuck Schumer in the Senate have done a great job of poking sticks in the spokes of the Republican bicycle wheels. Both have been deeply constrained by Republican control of the House and the Senate. The two have done well with the cards they have. There is no reason that will not continue.
Some of our sins may go away: Finally, and perhaps more importantly, Democrats, Independents and Republicans have a chance to create a better America. Those pining for the old days of Obama and Biden have it only half right. Both are great men who wanted the best for America. During their terms the hateful rhetoric, disregard of the law and cruelty of the current regime were absent. But all was not well.
Indeed, the decades before Trump were imperfect enough that ultrarich people could commit and easily hide hideous behavior. The gap in economic power between the strata of society steadily grew. Massive political battles were fought over enabling the poor to get healthcare. With some exceptions, we were a society that only roused itself to action when victims of crime were white. It was a more gentle and civil time, but things were far from perfect.
The Founding Fathers sought to create “a more perfect union,” not a perfect one. Barack Obama and Martin Luther King spoke of the “arc of history” and the “arc of the moral universe,” respectively. In both cases, there was no talk of a finished product.
We have the opportunity to defeat Trump and begin addressing some of those deeper inequities. A vital first step is recognizing that the rise of America First, The Tea Party, MAGA and Trump was a reaction to those inequities.
Donald Trump did one good thing. It is a big thing, however: He let us see which way the arc is bending. It is up to us to turn it again toward the sun. The early signs (the No Kings marches, the freezing souls in Minneapolis) are good.
This site is a bit of a one-trick pony in terms of message: The way to restart our journey toward the more perfect union is to vote. It never has been more important. No matter what happens in November, the Republicans will continue holding the reigns of power for at least the subsequent two years. That’s okay. The immediate goal is reestablishing guardrails and reasserting the rule of law.