Donald Trump, Inflation in North Carolina and the Midterms

I asked Microsoft CoPilot to write a short essay describing the impact of inflation on North Carolina. Though the essay does not directly mention Donald Trump, inflation in North Carolina clearly rose during the first ten months of his administration. This has a great chance to impact the midterm elections next November.

Here is the essay:

Inflation in North Carolina has risen faster than the national average, significantly increasing household costs and reshaping the state’s economic outlook. Since 2021, families in North Carolina have faced monthly expenses more than $1,000 higher than before, with cumulative inflation exceeding 22%, compared to about 20.7% nationally. This has created unique challenges for residents, businesses, and policymakers in the state.

Inflation’s Direct Impact on Households

The most immediate effect of inflation in North Carolina has been on purchasing power. According to the U.S. Congressional Joint Economic Committee, the average household in the state now spends $1,048 more per month to buy the same basket of goods and services as in January 2021. Over nearly four years, this has amounted to more than $31,000 in additional costs.

• Housing and rent: Rising property values and construction costs have pushed rents and mortgages higher, especially in fast-growing urban centers like Charlotte and Raleigh.
• Food and groceries: Supply chain disruptions and higher transportation costs have made basic necessities more expensive, disproportionately affecting low-income families.
• Energy and utilities: Fuel and electricity prices have climbed, straining household budgets and increasing the cost of commuting in a largely car-dependent state.

Business and Employment Effects

Inflation has also reshaped the business environment in North Carolina. While the state’s economy continues to grow, inflation has slowed momentum. In 2024, GDP growth was just 1.6%, below expectations.

• • Small businesses face higher input costs, from raw materials to labor, making it harder to maintain profitability.
  • Large employers in sectors like finance, technology, and manufacturing have had to adjust wages to keep pace with rising living costs, adding pressure to balance sheets.
  • Employment stability remains relatively strong, but wage growth has not fully matched inflation, leaving many workers with stagnant real incomes.

Comparison with National Trends

North Carolina’s inflation rate has consistently outpaced the national average. While the U.S. overall has seen about a 20.7% increase in prices since 2021, North Carolina’s rate is closer to 22.4%.

• This difference translates into higher monthly costs for North Carolina households compared to families in other states.
• The state’s rapid population growth and strong demand for housing and services have amplified inflationary pressures.
• Regional vulnerabilities, such as reliance on imported goods and exposure to global supply chain disruptions, have made North Carolina more sensitive to inflation shocks.

Long-Term Outlook

Economists warn that inflationary pressures may persist. Forecasts suggest slow but steady growth in the coming years, with risks tied to federal monetary policy, tariffs, and climate-related events like hurricanes.

• If inflation remains elevated, households may continue to struggle with affordability, particularly in housing and healthcare.
• Businesses may face uncertainty in planning investments, potentially slowing job creation.
• Policymakers in North Carolina will need to balance economic growth strategies with measures to protect vulnerable populations from rising costs.

Conclusion

Inflation in North Carolina has had a profound and disproportionate impact compared to the national average. Families are paying thousands more each year for essentials, businesses are grappling with higher costs, and the state’s economic growth has slowed. While inflation is a nationwide issue, North Carolina’s unique demographic trends, rapid urban expansion, and regional vulnerabilities have made its effects more severe. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts from state leaders, businesses, and communities to ensure that growth remains inclusive and sustainable.