Listen very carefully when politicians talk about affordability and inflation. The two terms often are used interchangeably, but they are different–and that difference matters.

Affordability is a feeling or feelings that influence people’s buying behavior. It is really a measure of consumer confidence. Inflation is a set of numbers that should help mold those feelings–but often don’t either because people are uninformed, politicians are deceptive or both.

The subtleties were apparent in an ABC News interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Despite the fact that the Trump administration has been in office for more than a year, Bessent again played the Biden card.

“Look, Americans should be worried about affordability,” he told correspondent Selina Wang. “The Biden administration destroyed affordability.”

There are a few things to note. The first is that it simply bad form to not take at least some ownership after a year.  Beyond that, the spike in inflation during the Biden years was at least partly due to the massive infusion of money to jump start an economy that had been decimated by COVID-19. Finally, the severity of the pandemic in part caused by the first Trump administration’s missteps.

To not include those elements of context is misleading.

The Trump administration’s problem echoes Biden’s. Analysts suggest that the downfall of his administration was pushing the idea that the economy was not as bad as voters thought it was by quoting statistics. Feelings trump facts every time. It is like telling somebody with a headache that they should be happy that they don’t have a migraine.

Wang pointed to mixed results from the Consumer Price Index: Gas prices are down but beef and coffee are up. Bessent goes to make a comment that is both patronizing and a non sequitur:

“When you step on the scale, you don’t look at the composite number of how much you weigh and say, ‘Well, my arm weighs this. My head weighs this.’ So I believe that we are quickly going to meet the [Federal Reserve’s] target of 2% inflation.”

Inflation is rising, albeit in a slower rate than in 2024. It seems unlikely that we will hit 2% anytime soon. Indeed, the decision to not renew the enhanced premium tax credits supporting the Affordable Care Act could impact the affordability debate.

ACA: Food or Medicine?

It’s unlikely that the administration’s affordability problem will abate any time soon. It let the enhanced premium tax credits upon which many people relied for financing health insurance expire. People are very aware of who killed them. The increase in premiums estimated in the graphic below, which was created by ChatGPT, will to some extent be cancelled out by some short-term middle-class tax benefits included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Those tax cuts will vie with inflation and the health care costs to establish the electorate’s mood. But events and the feelings they engender don’t occur in a vacuum. The sour mood caused by the situation with DHS and ICE and international tensions likely will put voters in “throw the bums out” mode. The best way to join them — or opt to support our current leadership — is by voting. Please do.

The numbers in the graphic below are rather daunting. The bottom line is that folks are going to be spending a lot more money on healthcare.

 

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How Rising Costs Affect Different Age Groups

Same inflation • Same income ($75,000) • Different household pressures

Key takeaway: Inflation affects everyone, but age determines where the pressure shows up — rent and daily costs for younger adults, family and housing costs for mid-career households, and health insurance premiums for those nearing retirement.

(Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State United Teachers; CPI Inflation Calculator, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)